Ceasefire Achieved– Again!

President Trump announced the start of “major combat operations in Iran” on February 28, 2026. The stated goals were to “raze [Iran’s] missile industry to the ground,” “annihilate their navy,” and “ensure that Iran does not obtain a nuclear weapon.” To the Iranian people, Trump said, “take over your government.”

By March 2, Trump had revised the war’s projected duration from “four weeks, or less” to “four to five weeks” to “we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that.”

Throughout March, Trump repeatedly said that the operation was “substantially ahead of our time projections.” On March 26, nearly four weeks into the war, Trump said, “We estimated it would take approximately four to six weeks to achieve our mission. Twenty-six days on, we're extremely, really a lot ahead of schedule." Also in March, Iran blockaded the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting oil and gas trade. Oil prices exceeded $100 a barrel in late March, nearly double the price at the start of that year.

On April 7, five weeks after the start of the war, Trump threatened mass destruction in Iran on Truth Social. He suggested Iran could avoid it if “less radicalized minds prevail,” but otherwise, “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Later that day, he announced a two-week ceasefire and withdrew his earlier threats. Oil prices fell by 16% in a single day.

The following day, the Trump administration called the war a “victory.” The president announced that U.S. ships would begin clearing the Strait of Hormuz of mines. After peace talks failed, Trump announced a U.S. blockade of the Strait. On April 17, Iran announced it would allow traffic through the Strait, but reversed this decision the next day when the U.S. refused to lift its own blockade.

On April 20, seven weeks into the war, Trump posted on Truth Social, “[the democrats] like to say that I promised 6 weeks to defeat Iran, and actually, from the Military standpoint, it was far faster than that, but I’m not going to let them rush the United States into making a Deal that is not as good as it could have been. I read the Fake News saying that I am under “pressure” to make a Deal. THIS IS NOT TRUE! I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly!”

In May, the U.S. and Iran traded small-scale attacks and the White House made conflicting statements on the ceasefire. Oil prices hovered near $100 per barrel for most of the month.

A ceasefire in June promised to end the war, but by the end of the month, Iran had restarted drone attacks on ships passing through the Strait. U.S. counterattacks renewed the fighting. On July 7, Trump said the ceasefire was “over.”

In June 2026, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that oil shipments through the strait had returned to a relatively normal rate. Independent ship trackers, however, put shipments at between a tenth and a third of pre-war levels. Oil prices again approached $100 per barrel in mid-September, 2026. On September 17, The Soufan Center called an end to the war out of reach. The war had entered its 29th week.

Most recently, Trump spoke at the U.N. General Assembly on September 22, where he said he had to decide whether to strike a deal with Iran or “annihilate” the country.